projections

Industry Analysis – Data Sources and Industries

Data Sources

Generally speaking, The Industry Analysis normally contains many facts, figures and future industry projections. For this data to be believable, the analysis should be sourced through independent research whenever it is possible.  The opinions of the business’s management are basically insufficient to persuade a high-level investor, and dependence on “anecdotal” information can negatively impact the integrity of the entire plan.

Industries

Most businesses compete in multiple overlapping industries. The business that produces and markets  medical  appliances  for  doctors,  as  previously mentioned,  participates competitively  inside  the healthcare industry, the medical appliance industry and the manufacturing industry. In addition to centering attention on the definition and assessment of the relevant market as previously detailed, the Industry Analysis should include full details and complete descriptions of all of the markets in which the business participates.

Finally, Industry and market trends should include potential market growth with facts, figures and projections normally over a timeline of two, three, five or sometimes ten years. The estimates you develop should always be supported with detailed information about any changing market trends, latest industrial technological and hi-tech developments, unpredictable customer profiles and any other significant factors related to industry. It is critical to support your researched assumptions with reasonable goals and objectives. If you overstate and exaggerate the projections of market share and size, it will only lead to unwanted questioning and ultimate rejection of your Business Plan by potential investors.

Understand the Results of Your Business Plan

Many facts about business plans never change with time and are basically set in stone, including the processes of preparation that remain the same for most business models, methods of research might differ, but research still needs to be accomplished, and a financial feasibility must include projections based on sound assumptions, and this leads to a statement that should be made right away to get it out in the open, and that is the fact that no business plan is ever 100% dead on accurate, but of course, I can guarantee 100% that having no plan is absolutely never the right thing to do either, so as a result it’s important to examine the actual results of the business compared to those projected in the business plan.

Most plans by their nature are wrong, and yet vital, it’s an unexpected and surprising thing to hear especially if you have never put a business plan together, so after making a statement like that where else do we go, except to the very core of what business and strategic planning is all about.

Let me start out by saying that those who are deeply involved in plans prepare projections that many times are incorrect, and no one I know even came close in predicting the steep plunge in the global economy in the fall of 2008, so it goes without saying that those who are deeply involved in business planning processes around the world have been going through a lot of changes, adjustments and corrections, and multiple reviews and revisions.

So you see why my opening statements about needless ineffective business plans, and yet their importance starts to make sense, especially as we look ahead to the rest of this year, many sober forecasts are still in the review and revision process and reflecting the current reality of the global economic situation, which always brings up the question why do we do business and strategic planning in the first place, is everyone just wasting their time developing plans and forecasts? Now the answer should always be obvious that although the results are inaccurate at times, how can we determine where we are if a map hasn’t been produced to show us how we got there, and of course, more importantly, where we are going?

If when you review your plan prepared in the past couple of years, of course the results should be greatly different from what actually took place, you should compare the two in detail and look not only where the differences are, but where the “greatest differences” exist, for example, where expenses were tied to sales, where sales performed as expected or didn’t perform as expected, and look for how all the numbers were supposed to tie together, not just why they didn’t.

Now, if you are like the many thousands of global entrepreneurs that did not have a plan, then this might be a really good time to get the process started in order for you to develop and have a much clearer and concise view of your future business and the direction it is heading, and you should start by making some simple projections for sales, costs and expenses, and at this time don’t worry about whether they’re wrong or not, just try and make sure that you check each month to determine where and how and in which direction the numbers were incorrect so that you can correct and make adjustments to the information, and the benefit of this whole process should bring you much closer to the action of what is taking place in the local and global markets, and greatly increase your awareness of the actions you need to take in a more timely fashion to increase your success, and your intimate understanding of the details of your business will grow exponentially.

By implementing the review process on a monthly basis, if you are wrong you are only wrong one month at a time, and as you use the plan comparison to actual results and associated analysis to see more closely what is happening exactly, the accuracy of your adjustments will improve, and in the future, results will be much more accurate and in tune with market activity, and you should see a pattern of monthly improvements.

These implemented planning and analysis steps will put you in a much better position to forecast more accurately when the markets should start to improve, as they will at some point, and you will be able to use what you learned in the process to recognize the signs, anticipate what will take place, and plan your actions accordingly.

So although the results of your planning may be wrong and inaccurate, it is still a critical key to successful business and an essential tool for successful global entrepreneurs, as they learn that in addition to preparing an initial strategic plan, an important part of the process is making necessary changes and adjustments in determining how to recover in the most effective and efficient manner, and how would you know what steps to take in the recovery process if you didn’t prepare the business and strategic plans in the first place.

Understand How You Create a Business Plan – Part 3

As stated earlier, the financial projections section of the plan should be thought of as simply quantifying the effects of what was presented in the plan narrative and although the projections are concerned with the future don’t think of the projections as merely a prediction, instead, the projections should be thought of as researched and accurate goal-setting with respect to revenues and expenses. Remember, we cannot predict the future and this is precisely why research and planning is necessary, since we can make plans, and set the most accurate expectations and goals possible. The important point to remember is for the most accurate projections/goal-setting your research must be the best and most complete available that you can obtain about all facets of the market, industry, and demographics.

Your financial projections should include at least a listing of required funds and their uses, a sales forecast (at least monthly for the first year and quarterly for additional years), a variable cost of sales analysis, a fixed expense operating budget, a projected profit and loss statement, and possibly a projected cash flow statement, a balance sheet, and any breakeven analysis will be a valuable component to include.

You should detail exactly how much money you need to make your plan a reality and your listing should break these costs down into Fixed Assets and Working Capital, as fixed assets are property that usually has some sort of long-term value, and working capital is money that will be used to finance the short term operations of the business.

For your sales forecast don’t let the fear of prediction stop you from arriving at a projected revenue figure, since every business sells units of something, whether it be hours, projects, products, services, etc., simply set goals for the numbers of units you believe you can sell taking into account any seasonality factors and any limiting factors of the capacity of your business to deliver product or service, and finally, multiply these units by your average established prices and the result is your sales forecast in dollars, and each fundamental assumption that you make needs to be documented in this section since the assumptions themselves can sometimes be much more important than the final numbers.

Variable costs are those cost incurred every time a sale is made and they vary directly with sales, as they are the direct cost associated with producing or selling your products and services, and variable cost per unit includes the cost of goods themselves (for retailers), any direct labor associated with creating the product, and any materials that go into the product itself.

Fixed expenses do not vary with sales and are usually tied to some contracts with arrangement or indirect cost of doing business such as rent, salaries, loan obligations, insurance, and advertising, and you should develop a monthly fixed expense budget for the year detailing both the amounts and when they occur.

A profit and loss statement commonly called the “P&L” combine’s the revenue, variable cost, and fixed cost amounts in order to see if the business is operating at a profit or at a loss, and this statement tries to line up all revenues and expenses to determine the profit potential of the business during a definite period of time (i.e. monthly, quarterly, annually etc.).

In its simplest form, most P&L Statements adhere to the format including Projected Revenue, minus Variable Cost of Sales, equals Gross Margin, minus Fixed Operating Expenses, and equals Net Profit or Loss, and developing a comprehensive set of financial projections is an art to itself, so the important point is your projections should be simply stated, so keep in mind that with spreadsheets today it is possible to crank out a forest of paper with many different scenarios, ultimately resulting in nothing for better decision-making (the true purpose of projections in the first place), but only confusion.

We have put together hundreds of Business Plans for businesses from every industry, and it is important to point out that although the process of researching and gathering information and creating the detailed components that make up the final structure of the “plan,” and putting them together in the final version of the Business Plan is basically the same process regardless of business model, each valuable component of information shouldn’t be taken lightly, and overlooked or left out, without possible negative consequences to the ultimate success and value of the Business Plan.

Power in the Results of Your Plan!

bp scabble successI need to make one statement right away and get it out in the open, and that is the fact that no business or strategic plan is ever 100% dead on accurate, but of course having no plan is absolutely never the right thing to do either, so let’s look at the actual results of the business compared to those projected in the business plan.

Another seemingly contradictory statement is that most plans are wrong and yet extremely vital, it’s an unexpected and surprising thing to hear from someone who forecasts and prepares business and strategic plans for a living, especially for those that have never developed and put a plan together, so after making a statement like that where else do we have to go, except to the very core of what business and strategic planning is.

Let me start out by saying that those who are deeply involved in plans prepare projections that many times are incorrect, and of everyone I know, only a few even came close in predicting the steep plunge in the global economy last year in the summer and fall of 2008, question-mark3aso it goes without saying that those who are deeply involved in business planning processes around the world have been going through a lot of changes, adjustments and corrections, and multiple reviews and revisions, a classic true learning experience for everyone.

So you see why my opening statements about needless ineffective business and strategic plans, and yet their importance should start to make sense, and as we look ahead to the rest of the 2009 and further ahead to 2010, many upbeat forecasts that are being questioned, are in the review and revision process and starting to reflect the realities of the global economic situation, which always brings up the question why do business and strategic planning in the first place, is everyone just wasting their time developing plans and forecasts?

The answer should quickly become obvious that although the results are inaccurate at times, how we can determine where we are, if a map hasn’t been produced to show us how we got there in the first place and of course, where we are going.

If and when you look at your plan prepared last year, and of course the results should be greatly different from what actually took place, you would compare the two in detail and look not only where the differences are, but where the greatest differences exist, for example, where expenses were tied cash-flow-financialstatementsto sales, where sales performed as expected, and look for how all the numbers were supposed to tie together, not just why they didn’t, and many times contributing factors that exacerbated the economic impacts can be identified, and those factors can be planned for and possibly eliminated as adjustments are made for the future.

And If you are like the many thousands of global entrepreneurs and organizational leaders that did not have a business or strategic plan, then this might be a really good time to get the process started in order for you to develop and have a much clearer view of your future business, and you can start by making some simple projections for sales and revenues, costs and expenses, and at this time don’t worry about whether they’re wrong or not, just try and make sure that you check each month to determine where and how, and in which direction the numbers were incorrect so that you can make necessary adjustments as a result of the information, and this whole process should bring you much closer to the action of what is taking place in the local, national, and global markets, and increase your awareness of the actions you need to take to increase your success.

business-planBy implementing the review process on a monthly basis, if you are wrong you are only wrong one month at a time, and as you use the plan’s comparison to actual results and associated analysis to see more closely what is happening exactly, your adjustments will improve, become more accurate, and the future results will be much more in tune with market activity, and you should begin to see monthly improvements.

These planning and analysis steps will increase your analysis skills, and put you in a better position to forecast more accurately when the markets should finally start to improve, and they will at some point, and you will be able to use what you learned in the process to see the signs, anticipate what will take place, and plan your actions accordingly.

es econ recov uparrowSo although the results of planning may be wrong and inaccurate, it is still a critical key component to an Entrepreneur’s or organizational Leader’s strategies for success, and an essential tool for successful global Entrepreneurs, as they learn in addition to preparing an initial business or strategic plan, an important part of the process is making necessary changes and adjustments, ultimately determining how to recover in the most effective and efficient manner, and how would you know how to recover if you didn’t prepare the business and strategic plan in the first place.

Understand the Results of Your Business Plan

understanding 12I need to make one statement right away and get it out in the open, and that is the fact that no business plan is ever 100% dead on accurate, but of course having no plan is absolutely never the right thing to do either, so as a result it’s important to examine the actual results of the business compared to those projected in the business plan.

Most plans are wrong and yet vital, it’s an unexpected and surprising thing to hear especially if you have never put a business plan together, so after making a statement like that where else do we go, except to the very core of what business and strategic planning is.

understanding planLet me start out by saying that those who are deeply involved in plans prepare projections that many times are incorrect, and no one I know even came close in predicting the steep plunge in the global economy last year in the fall of 2008, so it goes without saying that those who are deeply involved in business planning processes around the world have been going through a lot of changes, adjustments and corrections, and multiple reviews and revisions.

So you see why my opening statements about needless ineffective business plans, and yet their importance starts to make sense, and as we look ahead to the rest of the 2009 many upbeat forecasts are still in the review and revision process and starting to reflect the reality of the global economic situation, which always brings up the question why do business and strategic planning in the first place, is everyone just wasting their time developing plans and forecasts? And the answer becomes obvious that although the results are inaccurate at times, how can we determine where we are if a map hasn’t been produced to show us how we got there, and of course where we are going.

Business Plan_03If when you look at your plan prepared last year, and of course the results should be greatly different from what actually took place, you would compare the two in detail and look not only where the differences are, but where the greatest differences exist, for example, where expenses were tied to sales, where sales performed as expected, and look for how all the numbers were supposed to tie together, not just why they didn’t.

And if you are like the many thousands of global entrepreneurs that did not have a plan, then this might be a really good time to get the process started in order for you to develop and have a much clearer view of your future business, and you can start by making some simple projections for sales, costs and expenses, and at this time don’t worry about whether they’re wrong or not, just try and make sure that you check each month to determine where and how and in which direction the numbers were incorrect so that you can correct the information, and this whole process should bring you much closer to the action of what is taking place in the global markets and increase your awareness of the actions you need to take to increase your success.

understanding scabble successBy implementing the review process on a monthly basis, if you are wrong you are only wrong one month at a time, and as you use the plan comparison to actual results and associated analysis to see more closely what is happening exactly, your adjustments will improve, and in the future results will be much more accurate and in tune with market activity, and you should see monthly improvements.

These planning and analysis steps will put you in a better position to forecast more accurately when the markets should start to improve, and they will at some point, and you will be able to use what you learned in the process to see the signs, anticipate what will take place, and plan your actions accordingly.

understanding BusinessPlanning-261So although the results of planning may be wrong and inaccurate, it is still a critical key to successful business and an essential tool for successful global entrepreneurs, as they learn that in addition to preparing an initial strategic plan, an important part of the process is making necessary changes and adjustments in determining how to recover in the most effective and efficient manner, and how would you know what steps to take in the recovery process if you didn’t prepare the business and strategic plans in the first place.

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